On March 18, my country’s tire export data for January and February 2026 released by the General Administration of Customs showed new trends in the industry.
The cumulative export volume of rubber tires reached 1.55 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%; the total export volume was 26.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%.
The overview of China’s three types of tire exports in January and February 2026 compiled by “Guomaotong Big Data” is as follows: In terms of “PCR”, the total exports in January and February were 57.9842 million pieces, a year-on-year increase of 7.91%, and the amount was 1.443 billion
US dollars, up 2.15% year-on-year; in terms of “TBR”, the total export volume in January and February was 20.2944 million items, up 13.22% year-on-year, and the amount was US$1.402 billion, up 10.11% year-on-year; in terms of “OTR”, the total export volume in January and February was 3.2381 million items, down year-on-year
-2.84%, the export weight was 101,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.06%, and the amount was US$354 million, a year-on-year increase of 10.77%.
Looking at some statistical data from 38 key tire companies across the country in January and February 2026, except for the 3.6% decline in tire overseas sales revenue, the remaining output, delivery volume, and sales revenue all increased to varying degrees.
From January to February 2026, various statistical data of China’s tire industry got off to a good start. Overall production and sales increased, exports also performed well, and new tire factory projects continued to start construction. The situation seemed to be good.
However, blind optimism based on this is not conducive to the healthy development of the industry.
From January to February this year, although the overall production dropped slightly by 0.7%, medium and large tire companies had a 2.3% domestic production increase.
This is mainly because after years of macroeconomic fluctuations and market adjustments, the number of tire companies has been decreasing year by year, the production capacity of small and medium-sized enterprises is accelerating, and industry concentration has increased.
The industry concentration rate in 2022 will be about 47% (all steel 47.81%, semi-steel 46.65%), and the industry concentration rate in 2025 will be 63.7% (all steel 72.1%, semi-steel 62.3%).
The current growth in production mainly relies on a substantial increase in exports, and this increase in exports is mainly due to the “rush for exports” and “overseas stockpiling” caused by various issues such as “tariff chaos” and the “U.S.-Israel-Israel conflict”. A considerable number of tire factories have simply canceled subsequent orders in advance.
In addition, the sales revenue and output of overseas factories of Chinese tire companies also increased to varying degrees from January to February this year, but sales revenue also declined.
It is predicted that overseas markets may gradually decline starting from the second quarter of this year; and domestic tire sales, against the backdrop of weak new car sales, will not be easy to maintain or decline slightly.
At present, the “U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict” has brought about a rapid rise in the prices of synthetic rubber and related materials. The prices of upstream raw materials have soared, causing companies to replenish inventories and squeeze production out of a sense of urgency.
In fact, it is not just the tire industry. The country’s industrial added value performed well in the first two months of this year, especially the equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry.
This is mainly an early reaction of the industrial chain under cost pressure and policy expectations. Companies are afraid that upstream prices will be more expensive later, so they grab the goods and raw materials first.
At the same time, policies are being pushed forward to push credit, financing and projects forward.
The cumulative increase in social financing in the first two months of this year was approximately 9.6 trillion, and M2 at the end of two months increased by 9% year-on-year.
The fiscal side is also making efforts to issue larger bonds and make more forward spending arrangements.
Therefore, although the industry has been clamoring for “overcapacity” in recent years, some tire companies have recently received financial and policy support for their new projects and started construction first.
In January and February this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8%, but the sales volume of passenger cars declined, indicating that more festival-type and scene-type consumption such as catering, tourism, and services have recovered, rather than the increase in residents’ overall purchasing power and long-term consumption willingness.
As of March 23, more than 70 and more than 80 “price increase letters” have been collected, with the average increase ranging from 2% to 5%, and the highest increase reaching 12%.
However, “price increases” cannot drive market “sales” and will passively trigger major adjustments in the tire industry. The growth of Chinese tires last year was already weak, and tires in 2026 are destined to be difficult.
