China’s tire industry will show a unique development trend in 2025, with output hitting a new high in the past five years.
Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of cumulative production of all-steel tires was relaxed to 6.28%, while the growth rate of semi-steel tires narrowed to 1.66%.
Next, let’s take a closer look at this situation.
From Zhuochuang Information monitoring data, China’s annual all-steel tire production has shown a “W”-shaped trend in the past five years.
In 2021, domestic supply capacity will continue to grow, and output will reach a staged high; in 2022, tire output will fall due to high costs, declining profits, and slowing demand; in 2023, driven by the recovery of the domestic economy, optimized allocation of global resources, and increased exports, tire output will
It once again hit a new high for the period; in 2024, due to weakening demand and expanding contradictions between production and sales, output entered a stage of adjustment and decline; in 2025, after the early adjustment of production and sales, coupled with the boost from overseas infrastructure and the improvement in new energy commercial vehicle exports, the growth in export orders drove output to rebound and reach a new high in the past five years.
In the past five years, China’s annual semi-steel tire production has gradually shifted from weak consolidation to strength again. In 2025, production will hit a record high, but the cumulative year-on-year growth for the year narrowed to 1.66%.
From 2021 to 2022, the increased global dependence on China’s tire supply has led to an increase in production, but due to insufficient follow-up by the domestic replacement market, the industry as a whole is in an adjustment stage; 2023 –
In 2024, China’s tires entered an export-substitution growth cycle, with sufficient export orders strongly supporting production. The average annual growth rate of output in the past two years exceeded 15%; in 2025, export growth was under pressure, coupled with the impact of EU anti-dumping, the high export growth trend slowed down, and some high-export-reliant companies adjusted their production rhythms. In the end, the annual output achieved a slight increase and hit a record high.
In terms of production capacity release, the monthly starting load of domestic all-steel and semi-steel tires in 2025 will fluctuate significantly due to the Spring Festival holiday, holiday maintenance, and market supply and demand.
The production of all-steel tires showed a trend of opening high and then going low and then consolidating, and the overall performance was better than the same period last year; while the semi-steel tires showed a volatile and weak operating pattern, and the overall performance was not as good as the same period last year.
The two monthly construction starts are similar. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the construction starts in January dropped to the lowest point of the year. However, driven by the resumption of work after the holiday, the construction starts in March rose to the high point of the year.
The difference is that in the second quarter, the start-up of all-steel tires fell from a high level due to weak domestic terminal demand and high inventory. In the later period, it rebounded and remained relatively stable due to increased exports and domestic sales. Since May, the start-up has continued to be higher than the same period last year. However, semi-steel tires were constrained by insufficient comprehensive demand and continued high inventory throughout the year, and the monthly start-up rebound was weak. Although there was repair at the end of the year, there was still a certain gap with the high level.
Looking forward to 2026, all-steel tire production may maintain a growth trend, but the relative growth rate has narrowed. The core driver mainly comes from the increase in the export market, coupled with domestic supporting demand, there is still some support.
Relative to semi-steel tire production, the possibility of decline cannot be ruled out. The main constraint is the export pressure brought about by the EU’s anti-dumping and anti-counterfeiting investigation in the second half of the year. The slowdown in exports may affect the continued growth of production throughout the year.
Although the phased concentration of exports can provide strong support for production, based on a comprehensive assessment of the annual supply and demand pattern and the internal and external environment, it is expected that the output of semi-steel tires may decline.
