Driven by the dual drive of digital globalization and trade facilitation, cross-border e-commerce has grown from a new foreign trade format to a core growth pole of global trade, completely changing the pattern of traditional international trade.
Today, this track has bid farewell to the wild growth and entered the era of intensive cultivation of compliance, intelligence, and branding. It not only carries the dream of small and medium-sized enterprises to go overseas, but also faces multiple tests of global competition and regulatory changes, presenting a development status where opportunities and challenges coexist.
Currently, the scale of the cross-border e-commerce market continues to expand and has become an important force in stabilizing foreign trade.
Data show that my country’s cross-border e-commerce imports and exports will reach 2.75 trillion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13%. The growth rate far exceeds the overall level of goods trade in the same period. It is expected that the domestic market size will exceed 4.43 trillion yuan in 2026.
From a global perspective, global cross-border e-commerce transaction volume will exceed US$550 billion in 2025, and is expected to continue to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 15.44% from 2025 to 2034. China, as the world’s largest cross-border e-commerce exporter, has contributed important growth momentum.
Market entities also continue to grow. In the first four months of 2025, 5,080 new cross-border e-commerce companies were registered in my country, a year-on-year increase of 173.24%, forming a good ecosystem in which multiple entities participate.
The model has been iteratively upgraded, and the business formats have become richer and more diversified.
The operating models of cross-border e-commerce have formed three mainstream types: B2B, B2C, and C2C. Among them, the B2B model is still the main force, relying on platforms such as Alibaba International Station to realize batch trade between enterprises; the B2C model is rapidly rising, and platforms such as Amazon, AliExpress, and TikTok Shop allow brands to directly reach overseas consumers. In particular, TikTok Shop has rapidly penetrated markets such as Japan and Mexico with its “short video + live broadcast” model.
At the same time, the logistics model continues to be optimized, with overseas warehouses becoming the core support. Companies use the 9810 model to ship goods in batches to overseas warehouses to achieve local delivery, shortening the time limit to 1-3 days, and greatly improving the user experience. At present, Chinese companies have deployed overseas warehouses in many places around the world and continue to improve the logistics network.
The two-wheel drive of policy and technology has injected new momentum into the development of the industry.
At the domestic level, cross-border e-commerce has been included in the government work report for 13 consecutive years, and 178 cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones cover the country, providing policy support such as tax exemptions and customs clearance convenience. At the international level, my country has 35 Silk Road e-commerce partner countries, promoting the continuous deepening of international cooperation in cross-border e-commerce.
Technological empowerment has achieved remarkable results. AI technology has penetrated the entire chain, and its application penetration rate in product selection, marketing, inventory management and other aspects exceeds 60%, greatly improving operational efficiency and allowing small and medium-sized sellers to go global efficiently.
At the same time, cross-border e-commerce also faces many challenges.
Global regulations continue to tighten. The European Union has canceled its tax-free policy for packages under 150 euros, the United States has adjusted its small-amount exemption policy, and VAT withholding and payment has become the norm in various countries. Compliance costs continue to rise.
Traffic involution has intensified, platform advertising bidding has become fierce, customer acquisition costs have increased by more than 40% compared with 2023, and the low-price distribution model has gradually been eliminated.
In addition, issues such as fluctuations in logistics costs, unstable supply chains, and gaps in comprehensive talent have also become bottlenecks restricting the development of small and medium-sized sellers.
In general, cross-border e-commerce is currently in a transition period of high-quality development, with strong growth resilience but increasingly fierce competition.
As the compliance system continues to improve, technology applications continue to deepen, and emerging markets accelerate, the development space for cross-border e-commerce remains broad.
In the future, only those entities that adhere to compliance operations, build brand advantages, and strengthen supply chain capabilities can gain a firm foothold on the global track, promote the sustained and healthy development of the cross-border e-commerce industry, and inject more digital momentum into global trade.
