Friends who are engaged in cross-border e-commerce, have you always been trapped by these problems recently: the shop is not moving, low prices have no profit, advertising is constantly burning, but the orders are getting fewer and fewer; watching others say “earning 100,000 a month” and “going overseas easily”, but your own practice is full of pitfalls, compliance, logistics, supply chain, every level is as difficult as the sky; the good days of making money by lying down are gone forever. Is cross-border e-commerce not working, or is our way of playing fundamentally wrong?
Most sellers who entered the industry early have experienced the golden age of cross-border e-commerce.
At that time, the information gap was the biggest dividend. You could move domestic small commodities to Amazon and AliExpress without having to conduct refined operations or understand brand compliance. You could place orders just by putting them on the shelves, and you could make a lot of money just by selling them.
There are no complicated tax rules, no strict platform supervision, and no fierce price involution. As long as you dare to do it, you can get a piece of the pie.
But now, looking back at the node of 2026, the era of barbaric growth and extensive profit-making has completely come to an end.
The scale of the global cross-border e-commerce market continues to expand. The global market size is expected to exceed US$5 trillion in 2026, and China’s total cross-border e-commerce import and export volume will also exceed 3 trillion yuan. However, the rules of the industry have already been turned upside down.
Stop lying to yourself!
The three major illusions of cross-border e-commerce are eliminating 80% of sellers
Many people still hold on to the old thinking when doing cross-border business, and are blinded by industry illusions, and can only be eliminated by the market in the end.
The first illusion: You can seize the market at a low price.
In the past, price wars were a tried and tested weapon, but now, with rising logistics costs, raw material prices, and increased compliance costs in various countries, the low-price strategy has long reached a dead end.
Blindly lowering prices will only compress profit margins, product quality will not keep up, bad after-sales reviews will be everywhere, and the weight of the platform will drop again and again, eventually falling into an endless cycle of “the more you sell, the more you lose”.
Data shows that the current growth rate of low-price sellers is only 7.6%, which is far lower than the industry average. This road is no longer feasible.
The second illusion: You can survive for a long time by relying on platform traffic.
Many sellers place all their hopes on a single platform, relying on the platform’s natural traffic and paid promotion, but ignore the ever-changing platform rules.
Platform policies are tightened, traffic allocation is tilted towards top sellers, and algorithms are frequently adjusted. Once there is any trouble on the platform, stores may face the risk of plummeting traffic or even account closure.
Without its own traffic pool and core competitiveness, it will always be just a “worker” on the platform and has no ability to resist risks.
The third illusion: Cross-border e-commerce is a low-threshold entrepreneurial project.
The Internet is full of gimmicks about “getting started with zero basics” and “one-click distribution and earning money”, making countless people mistakenly believe that cross-border e-commerce is a shortcut with zero threshold and high returns.
But in fact, today’s cross-border e-commerce has long been a comprehensive battlefield integrating product selection, operations, compliance, logistics, supply chain, and localized services.
If you don’t understand the tax compliance of various countries, you may face huge fines; if you don’t understand supply chain management, you will fall into the dilemma of out-of-stock and overstocking; if you don’t understand the needs of overseas users, no one will care about your products no matter how good they are.
The so-called low threshold is just a cover for cutting off newbies.
These three major illusions have deceived too many sellers.
When we burst these bubbles, we will find that cross-border e-commerce has never been a track for making quick money, but a protracted battle that requires professionalism, patience and long-termism.
The industry has changed!
You must see clearly the three major changes that cross-border e-commerce is going through.
The era of huge profits is over. It is not that cross-border e-commerce has no opportunities, but that the industry has entered a high-quality development stage from “barbaric growth” to “intensive farming”. The core logic has completely changed. The three major changes are reshaping the entire industry.
Compliance has changed from an option to a life-or-death line.
In the past, compliance was a negligible cost for sellers. Nowadays, global regulations have been tightened across the board, and compliance has become the basic threshold for entry.
The European Union has canceled its tax-free policy for packages under 150 euros, and the U.S. has adjusted its small-amount exemption policy. VAT withholding and payment has become the norm in various countries. China has also strengthened cross-border e-commerce tax supervision through digital taxation.
Product certification, environmental standards, data privacy protection, every compliance requirement is untouchable.
How many sellers have had their stores closed and their funds frozen because they ignored compliance, and their hard work has been reduced to nothing overnight.
In today’s cross-border e-commerce, compliance comes first. Without compliance, no matter how hard you try, it will be in vain.
Competition has shifted from price war to value war.
The industry has long bid farewell to the era of “whoever is cheaper wins” and has turned to competing for product value, brand strength and user experience.
Consumers no longer only focus on low prices, but are more willing to pay for products with quality, brand and service.
The growth rate of brand sellers reached 28%, which is 3.7 times that of distribution sellers.
Deeply cultivating subdivided categories, polishing product quality, creating exclusive brands, and building user trust are the core to obtaining high profits and long-term foothold.
Those sellers who only follow the trend and do not have core products will eventually be eliminated by the market.
Technology has changed from an auxiliary tool to a core competitiveness.
In 2026, AI technology will fully penetrate the entire cross-border e-commerce chain. The success rate of AI product selection and hot sale prediction will increase to 93%. AI content generation can increase the marketing conversion rate by 15% – 20%. Intelligent inventory, compliance warnings, and intelligent customer service, AI will make it possible for “one person to operate a country’s market.”
The penetration rate of AI applications in the industry will exceed 60% by the end of the year. Sellers who still rely on extensive manual operations are far behind in efficiency and have high costs, and they are simply unable to compete with technology-enabled opponents.
The application ability of digital tools directly determines the survival space of sellers.
In addition, the market structure is also being restructured, and the growth rate of mature European and American markets has slowed to 5% –
8%. Emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East have become growth engines, and localized operations have become the key. Pure shelf e-commerce has declined, and content e-commerce such as short videos and live broadcasts have risen. The model of content planting + live broadcast conversion has become a new entrance to traffic.
Every change is a reshuffle of the industry. If you cannot keep up with the pace, you will be left far behind.
Written to all cross-border people: Exiting with huge profits is the real beginning of the industry
Fans often ask me: Are there still opportunities for cross-border e-commerce now?
Can ordinary people still join the game?
My answer is: There is a chance, but it is no longer an opportunity to make quick money.
Cross-border e-commerce has not declined, but has become more standardized and mature.
The huge profits in the past were due to information asymmetry, gaps in industry supervision, and unsaturated market competition. This kind of irrational prosperity is destined to not last long.
But now, the industry has shed its impetuosity and returned to its business essence. What is competing is real operational capabilities, product strength and business awareness. This is what cross-border e-commerce should be like.
For sellers who are still holding on, I would like to give some sincere suggestions: First, give up the illusion of making quick money and establish a long-term thinking.
Don’t be obsessed with short-term hot hits, dig deep into a niche, polish your products, accumulate users, and slowly build your own brand. Long-term value far outweighs short-term benefits.
Second, put compliance first and build a professional compliance system.
Sort out the tax, product, and environmental compliance requirements of the target market, and don’t take any chances. Compliance is the bottom line for survival, and it is also the guarantee for long-term development.
Third, embrace technology to improve operational efficiency.
Actively learn AI tools and data analysis tools, and use technology to optimize the entire process of product selection, marketing, and inventory, reduce costs, improve efficiency, and widen the gap with competitors.
Fourth, deploy multiple channels to build anti-risk capabilities.
Don’t rely on a single platform. Combine platform stores, independent websites, and social e-commerce to build a global sales system, control your own traffic and users, and reduce platform risks.
Fifth, deepen localization and get closer to overseas users.
Different markets have huge differences in culture, consumption habits, and logistics payments. Only by conducting in-depth research on local needs, optimizing products and services, and doing localized fulfillment can we win the market.
The world of cross-border e-commerce has long changed.
The speculators and followers of the past are slowly being eliminated; only those who work hard, develop products deeply, know how to be flexible, and adhere to long-termism can gain a firm foothold in the new era.
The end of the era of huge profits is not the end, but the starting point for the cross-border e-commerce industry to mature.
The global market is still vast, and opportunities to go overseas have never disappeared, but the logic of making money has changed.
Stop complaining that the industry is difficult to work in, and stop missing the good old days. Rather than dwelling on the past, it is better to adapt to changes and hone your strengths.
In 2026, when doing cross-border e-commerce, you must be calm and take the slow road to go far.
What difficulties have you encountered in cross-border e-commerce?
What are your different views on industry changes?
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