In 2026, the central bank proposed to speed up the construction and interconnection of the RMB cross-border payment system at the payment and settlement work conference. This initiative is reconstructing the cross-border payment industry ecology from the three dimensions of system, network and technology.
At the institutional level, the new CIPS regulations will be implemented on February 1, 2026, clarifying zero-balance account management, relaxing access restrictions for overseas institutions, and supporting hybrid settlement models.
Zero-balance accounts effectively isolate the assets of operating institutions and participants, strengthening risk prevention and control.
Restrictions on overseas institutional custodian banks have been relaxed. It is expected that the number of direct participants in CIPS will increase to 220 and the number of indirect participants will exceed 1,800 in 2026, covering 190 countries and regions.
The hybrid settlement model meets differentiated needs and improves the operational efficiency of the cross-border payment system.
At the network level, cross-border payment interconnection is accelerating.
The implementation of projects such as the “Cross-border Payment Link” between the Mainland and Hong Kong and the mutual recognition of QR code payments in Southeast Asia have significantly reduced the cost of a single cross-border remittance, and the arrival time has also been shortened from 3-5 days to seconds.
The Multilateral Central Bank Digital Currency Bridge (mBridge) realizes “point-to-point” clearing, significantly reduces costs, and provides a differentiated competitive path for small and medium-sized banks and payment institutions.
At the technical level, the cross-border application of digital renminbi is deeply integrated with blockchain technology, becoming the core engine for improving the efficiency of cross-border payments.
Digital RMB cross-border pilots have been widely covered, and transaction scale has grown significantly. The mBridge project has greatly compressed the settlement cycle and is fully traceable, in line with anti-money laundering regulatory requirements.
Industry entities present a coordinated development pattern.
Large state-owned banks rely on their advantages to seize the cross-border large-amount settlement market; joint-stock banks and payment institutions focus on small-amount high-frequency fields; and financial technology companies benefit from the research and development of underlying technologies.
There are four major development trends in the subdivided industry.
In terms of infrastructure globalization, the two-wheel drive of CIPS and mBridge has continued to expand coverage, and the interconnection between cross-border payment systems and local real-time payment networks in various countries has accelerated.
In terms of deepening technological integration, blockchain and digital renminbi are reshaping the payment process, reducing costs and increasing efficiency, and artificial intelligence and big data technology are used for cross-border payment risk control.
The diversification of service scenarios is reflected in the transformation of cross-border payment institutions to full-link services, and the continued expansion of cross-border e-commerce and personal cross-border payment scenarios.
The refinement of the regulatory system means that the central bank implements penetrating supervision and functional supervision, unifies industry standards, and strengthens anti-money laundering and other supervision.
The cross-border payment industry is facing core opportunities, with triple dividends from policy, technology and market.
Policy dividends continue to be released, system improvement and interconnection create market space; technological innovation drives change, and the integration of blockchain and digital renminbi builds competitive advantages; market demand explodes, and the demand of cross-border e-commerce and foreign trade companies has spawned diversified payment services; the international competition landscape changes, SWIFT’s monopoly position is loosened, and domestic payment systems are ushering in alternative opportunities.
Among the relevant listed companies, banks, payment institutions, and financial technology have their own highlights, but they also face multiple risks.
Risks such as international trade frictions, changes in regulatory policies, technological iterations, intensified market competition, exchange rate fluctuations and other risks.
Investors need to pay attention to these risks and reduce investment risks through diversification and other methods.
In general, the central bank’s measures will bring long-term development opportunities to the cross-border payment industry. The industry will develop in a high-quality direction, but it also needs to be alert to various risks.
