In April 2026, the tire industry has become increasingly difficult, falling into a quagmire of losses and unable to extricate itself.
According to relevant platform estimates, as of April 9, the theoretical profit value of mid-range brand 205/55R16 semi-steel tires was -1.13 yuan/kg, a month-on-month drop of 0.02 yuan/kg, and a year-on-year drop of 2.94 yuan/kg.
The situation of economical 12R22.5 all-steel tires is also not optimistic, with a profit value of -1.39 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 1.04 yuan/kg.
This means that for every kilogram of tires produced by the company, companies are putting money into it. Semi-steel and all-steel tires have fallen across the board, and no category has been spared.
This kind of loss is not a short-term fluctuation, but a vicious cycle of continuous blood loss, and the losses are still expanding, and the company can only hold on.
The situation in the end market is even worse.
In terms of commercial tires, the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday not only failed to bring improvement to the market, but also further slowed down the pace of shipments, making dealers increasingly cautious in purchasing goods.
Passenger car tires are also bleak, with almost zero demand for tire replacement during the holidays.
Although the cost of raw materials is ridiculously high and tire prices are soaring, the terminal freight market has long been crushed by oil prices.
Freight prices have never risen, and drivers and fleets are struggling to survive, so naturally there is no need to replace tires.
The goods that agents in various places stocked up in anticipation of price increases in the early stage are still backlogged in the channels. The terminal consumption capacity is weak. After entering the new month, no one is willing to continue to replenish the inventory.
The operating rate of tire factories has also been severely affected.
In recent days, companies have resumed work one after another after suspending production during the Tomb Sweeping Day, but the operating rate rebounded and then slowly fell.
Costs have been pushed up, the pace of shipments has slowed down, domestic and overseas orders have been weak, and some companies have taken the initiative to suppress the release of production capacity.
Because the more production there is, the more losses there will be, and the so-called recovery of tire factories after the holidays will most likely be held back by reality.
“Actively control production and passively reduce inventory”, these two words will frequently appear in the operation strategies of tire factories.
At the 2026 China Rubber Annual Conference, the person in charge of a tire company directly pointed out that domestic tire growth has been completely sluggish, and there will be a “debt-payment decline” in April at the latest.
The false prosperity that was gained in the past through overdraft, momentum, and hard support must now be returned with interest.
According to the person in charge’s inference, domestic sales are likely to remain flat or even slightly drop in the future, and competition in overseas markets is becoming increasingly fierce, with everyone competing for the same piece of shrinking cake.
What’s even more terrible is that geopolitical conflicts may blow up the supply chain at any time and push up the prices of natural rubber and carbon black. Then the first to be unable to bear it are small and medium-sized tire factories.
In the second quarter of 2026, these four words, high costs, weak demand, low profits, and strong competition, are like four nails on the board, firmly nailing most tire factories.
For most tire manufacturers, this is not a simple torture, but a life-and-death matter. Especially for small and medium-sized manufacturers with weak ability to resist risks, this is undoubtedly an unbearable test of survival.
