Many years of investment experience in the A-share market tell us that sectors that can truly take the long-term and rise mainly rely on industrial upgrading, technological iteration and the explosion of real demand, rather than news stimulation and emotional hype.
Many retail investors tend to ignore the undervalued subdivided invisible tracks, and these areas are the directions where institutions have the deepest lurks, the strongest logic, and the strongest sustainability. They are also opportunities for ordinary retail investors to make steady profits.
Recently, the semiconductor market has become significantly differentiated. High-end chip design and wafer manufacturing targets have intensified fluctuations, while the advanced packaging segment continues to go against the trend and has a strong market.
Behind this is that the industry is completing a major switch between old and new processes. Traditional packaging solutions can no longer meet the performance needs of high-end chips. Semiconductor ceramic materials with ceramic substrates, ceramic casings, and high-purity ceramic powders as the core are ushering in a highly deterministic replacement market.
Semiconductor ceramic materials are one of the most urgently needed and scarce subdivisions in the current advanced packaging industry chain, and have the largest domestic substitution space.
The core logic behind its rise is that the performance of high-end chips has skyrocketed, and traditional packaging materials are no longer enough.
In recent years, there have been two significant changes in the semiconductor industry: First, AI computing power chips, high-speed optical modules, and new energy vehicle power chips have been fully popularized, and chip computing power, operating frequency, and full-load power consumption have continued to increase; second, advanced packaging processes have been fully commercialized, and the industry has entered the era of high-end advanced packaging.
The stronger the chip performance, the greater the heat generated. For high-end chips, heat dissipation and stability are crucial.
Plastic packaging and organic resin substrates commonly used in the past have poor heat resistance, weak thermal conductivity, and insufficient high-frequency environmental stability, and are no longer able to meet industry upgrade standards.
Semiconductor ceramic materials have natural advantages such as high thermal conductivity, high temperature resistance, high insulation, corrosion resistance, and structural stability. They are currently the only substrates that can be adapted to high-end advanced packaging processes on a large scale.
As long as advanced packaging continues to penetrate, the demand for replacement of ceramic materials will continue to be released. This is an irreversible technology upgrade trend.
The industrial chain has a clear structure and is divided into three segments: upstream, midstream and downstream.
The upstream core is high-purity ceramic powder, including two major categories: alumina and aluminum nitride. The barriers to powder technology are high, making it difficult for new players to enter the game.
The midstream is the core processing link. Processing high-purity powder into core structural parts for chip carrying, heat dissipation, and packaging is the link with the highest value and the largest increase in the industrial chain.
The downstream industry fully covers high-prosperity terminals, and multiple tracks have experienced high growth at the same time, forming a market foundation for supply and demand resonance.
Ten core companies including China Ceramics Electronics and Sanhuan Group were selected based on self-research of powders, mass production of substrates, packaging facilities, vehicle specifications and computing power scenarios.
Each of these companies has its own advantages. For example, China Ceramics Electronics has achieved independent control of aluminum nitride powder, and Sanhuan Group is the leader in integrating the entire industry chain.
From the macro perspective of the industry, the core of the mid- to long-term trend of semiconductor ceramic materials comes from triple logical resonance.
First, the logic of process substitution is irreversible, and the replacement of ceramic materials is a deterministic industrial replacement under hardware iteration; second, multiple downstream tracks are fully resonant, and multiple tracks are booming at the same time, which stabilizes the demand base of the industrial chain; third, there is huge space for domestic substitution, and domestic leading companies continue to break through core processes, and their market share will continue to increase.
Of course, participating in this track also requires facing risks.
The R&D and certification cycle for new materials is long, the number of entrants in the industry is increasing and competition is intensifying, the downstream industry has cyclical fluctuations, rapid technology iterations pose the risk of obsolescence, and short-term financial sentiment is highly volatile.
For ordinary retail investors, they only need to focus on five publicly available signals to judge changes in the track’s prosperity.
Track market quotations, pay attention to corporate production capacity announcements, keep an eye on downstream orders, track new product certification announcements, refer to financial report data, etc.
Overall, the upgrading wave of semiconductor ceramic materials driven by advanced packaging is a subdivided direction with solid logic, high barriers and strong sustainability in the current technology track.
The industrial chain is ushering in the triple dividend resonance of demand, production capacity, and domestic substitution, but it is necessary to remain rational during the investment process, avoid risks, and seize medium- and long-term structural opportunities.
