As the year-end approaches, the domestic tire industry has not ushered in the expected “peak season.” Instead, under the dual pressures of the seasonal off-season and the external environment, it has entered a period of overall weakness.
Data from multiple sample companies in the industry shows that tire orders in December, especially export orders, have further contracted. Companies’ enthusiasm for production scheduling has weakened, and some manufacturers have initiated production control or maintenance plans.
Orders have generally declined, with the export market under significant pressure. Information from industry monitoring agencies shows that the overall order volume of sample companies producing semi-steel tires (passenger car tires) and all-steel tires (commercial vehicle tires) has weakened this month. The performance of the export market is particularly noteworthy. In the passenger car tire sector, more than one-third of the sample companies (approximately 36%) reported a decline in their export orders compared to the previous month.
Although about 61% of companies saw their orders remain roughly the same as the previous month, overall demand was clearly weak. Industry analysts pointed out that the EU’s anti-dumping investigation and mandatory customs registration measures on Chinese passenger car tires were key factors contributing to the decline in export orders, particularly those targeting the European market. Since the implementation of these measures at the end of July, some companies whose main export market is the EU have seen their orders enter a downward trend. Although these companies are actively exploring other overseas markets to stabilize production, it will be difficult to offset the impact of the shrinking main market in the short term. The export situation for commercial vehicle tires is equally unfavorable. Data shows that as many as 45% of the sample all-steel tire companies saw a decrease in export orders compared to the previous month, while the remaining 55% saw their orders remain basically unchanged. Companies reported that in addition to the suppression of short-term demand due to the overseas Christmas holidays, the complexity and uncertainty of the international trade environment continue to constrain the growth of foreign trade orders.
Domestic demand is seasonally “cooling down,” and the replacement market is shrinking. In the domestic market, seasonal factors have become the main force dragging down demand. For all-steel tires, demand is highly correlated with the prosperity of infrastructure projects and long-distance transportation. Entering December, large-scale snowfall occurred in Northeast, Northwest, North China, and Central my country, forcing many outdoor construction projects to be suspended. At the same time, the severe weather also adversely affected the efficiency of road freight. The significant weakening of end-user replacement demand directly affected the order side of tire companies, resulting in a further reduction in domestic sales orders for all-steel tires. The domestic market for semi-steel tires is in a “transitional” stage: production orders for winter star products—snow tires—have basically ended, while demand for regular all-season tires has only maintained rigid sales, failing to form an effective growth driver. Tire companies are forced to reduce production, but inventory pressure remains. Faced with weakening domestic and international orders, tire companies are adjusting their production strategies to cope with market changes. This month, some sample companies continued their previous production control measures, while others arranged shutdowns for maintenance. This has led to a decline in the overall industry operating rate. Regarding inventory, although there was a certain concentration of shipments at the end of the month, resulting in a slight month-on-month decrease in the average inventory level, the destocking process is generally slow. As of the end of November, the average inventory turnover days of semi-steel tire sample companies remained at a relatively high level of over 45 days, significantly higher than the same period last year; although the inventory of all-steel tires decreased slightly year-on-year, the absolute amount is still not low. “Remaining inventory pressure” has become a common challenge faced by many tire companies. In summary, the shadow of overseas trade frictions and the release of overseas domestic production capacity continue to suppress the export space of Chinese tires. How to flexibly adjust in a volatile market environment and build a new growth defense through product upgrades and market diversification will be the key issues for domestic tire companies to meet the challenges of 2026.
