The global mining machinery market has vast space, and rising metal prices have driven capital expenditures to accelerate, and industry prosperity is expected to increase. Domestic mining machinery companies are expected to achieve accelerated growth under the opportunities of overseas expansion, aftermarket, and unmanned/electrification.
As the prices of key metals such as copper and gold further reach historical highs to stimulate capital expenditures, leading overseas mining companies such as BHP Billiton have released more aggressive capital expenditure plans. Mine capital expenditures are expected to accelerate from 2026 onwards.
Looking at the domestic and overseas markets, according to statistics, overseas mining machinery leaders have generally experienced an acceleration in 25-year revenue and new order growth, especially a quarter-by-quarter acceleration trend, and have performed well in 4Q25. In recent years, domestic leading mining machinery companies have generally achieved good growth in exports. At the same time, overseas revenue gross profits are generally higher than domestic ones, and subsequent increases in the proportion of exports can further enhance profitability.
The main views of China National Finance Securities are as follows:
The global mining machinery market of 100 billion US dollars mainly includes mining and mineral processing.
According to precedence research data, the global mining machinery market space is 133.09 billion US dollars and is expected to reach 229.2 billion US dollars by 2035, with a CAGR of 5.59% during the period, mainly including mining and mineral processing.
The mining process focuses on engineering machinery, including excavation, drilling, lifting, transportation, loading machinery, etc.; the mineral processing process mainly includes various large-scale mechanical equipment, including crushers, mills, slurry pumps, flotation machines, etc.
Copper and gold prices are high, and global mine capital expenditures are expected to accelerate.
Key metals currently still have large long-term supply gaps. For example, the supply gaps for lithium, copper, rare earths, and silver from 2024 to 2030 are 49%/34%/31%/30% respectively. The mining industry is a general trend to increase investment.
However, in the past few years, there has been a decline in the growth rate of mine exploration investment, construction investment budgets, and capital expenditures of major mining companies, resulting in a weak overall prosperity in the mining machinery industry.
Among them, the capital expenditure of domestic mining companies from 24/1Q to 3Q25 decreased by 3%/1% year-on-year respectively. The capital expenditure of overseas mining companies is still growing, but the growth rate further slowed down to 8%/3% in 2023/24.
However, as the prices of key metals such as copper and gold further reach historical highs to stimulate capital expenditures, leading overseas mining companies such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Glencore, ArcelorMittal, and Freeport-McMoRan have all released more aggressive capital expenditure plans. Mine capital expenditures are expected to accelerate from 2026 onwards.
Global market participants are dominated by overseas leaders, and the performance inflection point has been reached
The mining machinery industry has high entry barriers. Currently, global market participants are dominated by overseas leaders such as Sandvik, Epiroc, Metso, and Weir Group.
According to statistics from China International Finance Securities, overseas mining machinery leaders generally experienced accelerated growth in revenue and new orders over the past 25 years, especially a quarterly acceleration trend, and performed well in 4Q25.
For example, Sandvik’s 25-year mining segment revenue increased by 6.46% year-on-year, and new orders increased by 15.55% year-on-year. Among them, new orders signed in 3Q25/4Q25 increased by 23%/20% year-on-year respectively. Feedback is that the demand for open-pit and underground mines is relatively strong.
Rising metal prices have driven growth in mining investment and boosted the performance of leading overseas mining machinery companies.
High prosperity resonates with going overseas, the aftermarket, and electrification/unmanned operations. Domestic mining machinery companies are facing better growth opportunities
Going overseas: Domestic mining companies represented by Zijin Mining are continuing to expand their global market presence and are expected to help supporting domestic mining machinery companies go overseas.
In 2024, China’s mining industry’s foreign investment flow reached US$21.26 billion, a year-on-year increase of 115.21%, which has strongly assisted the globalization of domestic mining machinery companies. China’s mining machinery exports have continued to grow in recent years, reaching US$5.866 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.99%.
In recent years, domestic leading mining machinery companies have generally achieved good growth in exports. At the same time, overseas gross profit margins are generally higher than domestic ones. Subsequent increases in the proportion of exports can further enhance profitability.
Aftermarket: Mining machinery has created a huge aftermarket space due to its harsh operating environment. For example, the crushing and grinding links can generate an aftermarket space equivalent to 20% – 30% of the equipment value every year. Epiroc/Metso’s market revenue after 25 years will account for 66%/54% respectively, and Weir Group’s market revenue after 24 years will be as high as 80%.
At the same time, after Weir Group has experienced a complete commodity cycle from 2011 to 2023, the compound growth rate of revenue in the aftermarket is still above 7%, highlighting the excellent business model of mining machinery aftermarket space with large space and high compound growth rate over a long period.
At present, as the revenue volume of domestic enterprises increases and globalization layout is initially launched, more attention is paid to the layout of the aftermarket. Companies that are capable of achieving breakthroughs in the aftermarket will have huge growth potential.
Electrification/unmanning: In open-pit mining, the transportation cost of mining dump trucks can account for 40% – 50% of the mining cost. It is a general trend to improve economic efficiency through electrification/unmanning.
According to Yikong Zhijia’s prospectus, the market size of unmanned driving solutions in China’s mining areas is expected to grow from 2 billion yuan in 2024 to 30.1 billion yuan in 2030, with a compound growth rate of 57.4%.
Sales of unmanned mining trucks in China are expected to increase from approximately 4,000 units in 2024 to approximately 16,340 units in 2030, with a compound growth rate of 32.5%.
In this regard, the domestic industrial chain supporting capabilities lead the world, bringing huge growth opportunities to the leading domestic mining truck companies.
Investment Suggestions
The global mining machinery market has vast space, and rising metal prices have driven the accelerated growth of capital expenditures, and industry prosperity is expected to increase; domestic mining machinery companies
It is expected to achieve accelerated growth under the opportunities of overseas expansion, aftermarket, and unmanned/electrification. It is recommended to pay attention to leading domestic companies such as Naipu Mining Machinery (300818.SZ), Xugong Machinery (000425.SZ), and CITIC Heavy Industries (601608.SH).
Risk Warning
The risk of mine capital expenditure increasing less than expected and the risk of exchange rate fluctuations.
