2026 Cross-Border E-commerce Industry Trends, Platform Dynamics, and Risk Warnings

In 2026, the cross-border e-commerce industry entered a critical period of “deepening compliance and upgrading efficiency,” with the global market size expected to exceed $5 trillion for the first time. The GMV of Chinese cross-border e-commerce is projected to grow by 12% year-on-year, with platforms like Temu and TikTok Shop experiencing even higher growth rates of up to 25%. Compliance, localization, and branding have become the core directions for industry development. AI technology is also widely used in product selection, customer service, and supply chain optimization. Approximately 49% of American consumers rely on AI to assist in their shopping decisions, significantly boosting efficiency across the entire industry chain. Next, let’s look at the dynamics of the four core platforms. Amazon implemented its largest-ever fee reduction on January 5th in Europe, saving an average of £0.15 or €0.17 per item. Amazon’s US site simultaneously adjusted FBA fees on January 15th, increasing shipping fees for standard and high-priced items while decreasing fees for large items. The Saudi site requires sellers to provide a valid VAT number; otherwise, the platform will withhold 15% VAT. New withholding tax regulations in Mexico have taken effect, requiring sellers without an RFC number to have 36% tax withheld. Regarding inventory and returns, sellers must clear out overdue inventory (stored for more than 6 months) by January 15th; inventory over 15 months old will incur additional fees up to 13 times the monthly storage fee. The return period for 2025 holiday season items has been extended to January 31, 2026 (except for Apple products). From January 26th, the refund processing time for FBM sellers has been extended from 2 business days to 4 calendar days; exceeding this timeframe will result in automatic refunds and forfeiture of related claims eligibility. Operationally, FBA product pre-processing and labeling services on the US site have been suspended, and sellers must complete compliance procedures in advance. Manipulation of reviews and account qualifications are being strictly investigated. Large-scale account verification has been initiated on the Brazilian and Canadian sites, requiring timely information verification. Products containing lithium-ion batteries must submit compliance information according to ICAO requirements; otherwise, air freight delivery time will be affected. TikTok Shop has undergone a global operational upgrade, launching the “One Merchant, Global Sales” project, featuring five major functions including multi-store binding and cross-border sales and review interoperability. In February, cross-qualification store binding and one-click registration for global promotions will be added. Regarding fees and compliance requirements, commission rates on the five EU countries have increased from 5% to 9% (7% for some categories), with new merchants enjoying a 4% commission discount for 60 days. The US site mandates the use of TikTok Shipping’s USPS shipping labels. Electronic products on the Southeast Asian site must upload corresponding national security certifications; otherwise, they cannot be listed. From January 12th to 19th, the influencer health score system will be upgraded, covering official and affiliate influencers, and a positive score mechanism will be added. In terms of market expansion, it has covered more than 40 countries and regions. Entry requirements for the European market have been relaxed, and a pre-order function has been added to the Thailand site (charging a 2.14% service fee). Temu has adjusted compliance and security deposit requirements. For electrical appliances on the European site, CE-EMC and CE-RoHS test reports issued by a platform-designated institution are required; otherwise, the product will be removed from the platform. Security deposit standards have been tightened, with a maximum of 100,000 RMB for basic and special categories. The basic security deposit for semi-managed sellers is 10,000 RMB, and an additional 37,000 RMB CE certification deposit is required for the German site. For toys sold under semi-managed platforms, a security deposit of 30,000-50,000 RMB and a test report are required. In terms of business model, the fully managed model is being gradually phased out, shifting towards semi-managed operations, focusing on localization and building differentiated barriers. Starting in January, order fulfillment timeliness control has been strengthened, with a focus on combating delayed shipments and improving the buyer experience in the US market. Coupang emphasizes localization and operational rules, launching an English interface and eight overseas payment methods, and introducing the “Zero-Threshold WOW Membership” program; listings must conform to Korean aesthetics, prohibit exaggerated words, and prioritize high-resolution images with white backgrounds for the main image. Only CGF/CGF Lite mode is supported, and self-fulfillment is no longer accepted; products with more than five seller rating suspensions within a year will be permanently delisted. Regarding logistics and user protection, goods from the Weihai warehouse are cleared through customs within 47 hours, and the first batch of goods with ≥5 VIDs can enjoy 90 days of free storage and return fees. In response to the personal information leak incident, a user compensation plan totaling 1.685 trillion won has been launched to restore user trust. However, the industry also faces many risks. Regarding policy risks, Mexico has imposed tariffs of 10%-50% on 1463 categories of Chinese products; the EU continues to tighten environmental, data security, and tax regulations; and the US has eliminated the tax-free threshold for small parcels under $800, extending customs clearance time by 20%-30%. Operationally, rising platform fees are squeezing profit margins, and inventory management is becoming increasingly difficult; global shipping capacity misalignment is causing supply chain instability, and multi-regional inventory needs to address compliance differences across regions. General recommendations include increasing investment in overseas warehouses, simplifying customs clearance and reducing costs through a “B2B first-leg + local last-leg” model; leveraging AI tools to optimize product selection, inventory management, and advertising; and establishing a full-chain compliance system, focusing on monitoring policy changes related to taxation and product certification.