Effective April 1, 2026, China’s export value-added tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be officially cancelled. This policy has ended a bonus period of more than ten years and is profoundly changing the structure of China’s foreign trade exports.
The direct impact of the implementation of the policy cannot be underestimated.
The cancellation of the 9% export tax rebate will increase the cost of photovoltaic modules by approximately 0.06-0.07 yuan per watt.
Taking 210R components as an example, the export profit per unit is reduced by 46 to 51 yuan.
During the policy window period, overseas customers stocked up in advance, resulting in a “rush for exports” effect, but new orders are expected to decrease subsequently.
From January to February 2026, the national export value of photovoltaic modules was 22.481 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.26%.
Enterprise response strategies have clearly differentiated.
Leading companies such as Longi Green Energy and JinkoSolar rely on technology premiums and customer stickiness to increase module quotations in an attempt to pass on costs to customers.
Small and medium-sized enterprises are facing the dilemma of squeezed profit margins, increasing pressure to survive, and accelerated industry clearing.
The market structure is also constantly adjusting.
Europe is still the largest export market for China’s photovoltaic modules, accounting for 38.34% of the total, but the Middle East and North Africa has emerged as the second largest market with a share of 25.6%.
Price-sensitive regions such as the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America have been hit harder; in mature markets such as Europe, companies can maintain cooperation by negotiating small profit concessions with customers.
In the long term, the abolition of tax rebates is not the end, but the starting point for high-quality development of the industry.
In the past, some companies converted tax rebates into bargaining space and engaged in low-price competition overseas, resulting in “increase in volume and decrease in price” and involution and externalization.
After the policy adjustment, the competition logic has shifted from “fighting on price” to “fighting on technology + brand + service”.
Industry concentration will further increase.
Leading companies rely on global production capacity layout and technological advantages to stay strong; while small and medium-sized enterprises lacking core competitiveness are facing elimination, and the concentration of the photovoltaic industry is expected to further increase.
The product structure has also shifted towards high added value.
Companies have deployed TOPCon high-efficiency cells, color components, BIPV (building integrated photovoltaic) and other subdivisions. These products have greater profit margins and have become the key to avoiding homogeneous competition.
At the same time, the layout of overseas production capacity is accelerating, such as building factories in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, using localized production to circumvent trade barriers and enter high-premium markets.
As one of the “three new items” of foreign trade, photovoltaics’ export changes affect the overall structure.
In the short term, photovoltaic exports are under pressure, but China’s foreign trade growth engine is diversifying.
The export of high-tech products represented by electric vehicles and lithium batteries has grown strongly and has become a new pillar.
For example, in the first two months of 2026, Shanghai’s electric vehicle export volume was 26.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year surge of 112.6%; lithium battery export volume was 7.57 billion yuan, an increase of 94.9%.
This means that the foreign trade export structure is shifting from relying on a single category of photovoltaics to being driven by multiple points such as electric vehicles and lithium batteries.
After the policy is cancelled, financial resources can be more efficiently allocated to people’s livelihood and research and development areas, and feed back domestic market demand.
Although this change has brought pain, it has paved the way for the high-quality development of China’s foreign trade.
