On October 14, the State Council Information Office held a press conference where the General Administration of Customs introduced the import and export situation for the first three quarters of 2024 and released foreign trade import and export data for September. In September, my country’s total import and export value was 3,747.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 5.3% from January to September. September’s total export value was 2,165.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.6%, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 6.2% from January to September. September’s total import value was 1,582.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% and a month-on-month increase of 2.0%, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4.1% from January to September. The trade surplus in September was 582.62 billion yuan, and the cumulative trade surplus from January to September was 4,904.29 billion yuan.
With the continuous changes in the international economic and trade situation, China’s domestic and external environment is becoming more complex, and foreign trade development is facing a series of new opportunities and challenges, presenting new situations and trends. Several experts interviewed stated that since the beginning of this year, my country’s economy has been generally stable and progressing steadily, with new quality productivity rapidly taking shape, high-quality development being promoted in depth, stable growth in imports and exports of goods, and continuous optimization of the foreign trade structure, showing a trend of both increased quantity and improved quality.
Zhang Xiaotao, Dean of the School of International Economics and Trade at the Central University of Finance and Economics, stated that from a global perspective, against the backdrop of global trade growth, China’s foreign trade has been stable and improving. External factors are attributed to cyclical factors such as economic recovery and inventory replenishment, while internal factors are attributed to the combined effect of various policies and the positive adjustments made by foreign trade enterprises in the face of an unfavorable external environment. China and East Asia have become major driving forces for global trade.
Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that from January to September, China’s total imports and exports to the United States increased by 4.2% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 4.6% and imports by 2.7%, compared to a year-on-year decline in my country’s total imports and exports to the US in 2023. This again proves that Sino-US economic and trade ties remain close. In the first three quarters of this year, my country’s imports and exports to the EU increased by 0.9% year-on-year, a rebound compared to the year-on-year decline in 2023. Zhang Xiaotao stated that the trade volume between China and the EU has remained stable, contributed by both new energy products and traditional labor-intensive goods and electromechanical products. However, he believes that trade protection measures such as anti-subsidy and anti-dumping are on the rise and have a tendency to spread, and the risk of escalating trade conflicts remains. Future geopolitical risks are rising, regional conflicts are intensifying, and global political, economic, and regional conflicts will have great uncertainty. He suggested that efforts should be made to monitor traditional developed markets, actively promote bilateral consultations and negotiations, increase efforts to explore emerging markets, and improve early warning systems for foreign trade risks for enterprises.
Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, stated that September data shows my country’s exports exhibited two main characteristics: “stable scale but declining growth rate,” reflecting the divergence between the short-term situation and long-term trend of exports. The high export volume in September indicates that my country’s exports remain resilient, with steadily improving product competitiveness and the transformation and upgrading of the foreign trade structure being the fundamental reasons for this long-term resilience. The decline in export growth in September was mainly due to short-term factors such as domestic typhoons, international shipping congestion, and the US dockworkers’ strike, as well as the impact of a higher base and slower external demand. Looking ahead, Wen Bin believes that exports are expected to maintain stable volume and improved quality in the coming months.
Regarding the EU’s imposition of provisional anti-subsidy duties on electric vehicles imported from my country starting July 5th, Feng Lin, Executive Director of the Research and Development Department at Orient Securities, stated that my country’s automobile exports remained at a high level in September, and the overall impact of the EU’s tariffs on my country’s automobile exports is still manageable, but the subsequent impact needs continued monitoring. She believes that my country’s exports may still maintain positive growth in the fourth quarter, but against the backdrop of slowing external demand, the downside risk for exports is relatively high. On the import side, she analyzed that the rapid export growth in the earlier period has had a strong driving effect on imports. Since the end of September, a package of incremental policies has been successively introduced, which has strongly boosted market confidence, but it will take some time for the policies to be implemented and take effect. It is expected that although import demand may recover somewhat in October due to improved expectations, a significant rebound is unlikely.
