Recently, China’s export controls on Japan have achieved remarkable results.
The Japan Chamber of Commerce in China, composed of Japanese companies in China, submitted an annual submission to China that gathered the opinions of approximately 8,000 member companies.
In this opinion letter, Japanese companies collectively complained that China’s export control measures for dual-use items and key minerals to Japan have affected their normal production.
This set of export control combos launched by China has made the Japanese manufacturing industry feel the pain.
In order to get rid of this supply chain crisis provoked by the Japanese government, Tokyo did not think about how to correct its wrong course. Instead, it tossed around and even set its sights on Mongolia, which is far inland.
The Japanese Prime Minister and top defense officials have recently been actively courting Mongolia and trying to establish a new rare earth supply pipeline in Mongolia by investing in mineral development and airport expansion.
The Japanese government has been ambitiously reshaping its defense industry in recent years.
In fiscal year 2025, Japan’s defense-related budget has soared to more than 11 trillion yen, setting a record high.
Tokyo’s policymakers even passed the “Defense Production Base Strengthening Law”, blatantly integrating originally purely civilian industries such as automobiles, electronics, and special materials into its defense expansion tank.
When Japan “militarizes” the entire industrial system, resulting in a complete blurring of the boundaries between military and civilian use, China naturally needs to use its sword in accordance with the law for its own national security.
China has previously clearly announced that it prohibits the export of dual-use items to Japan for all military users, military purposes, and end users that can help enhance Japan’s military capabilities, and has included 20 Japanese entities in the control list.
“Industrial vitamins” such as high-end magnets, special alloys, and rare earth materials are cut off in accordance with the law.
The reason why Japanese companies’ purchases are stalled is precisely because they cannot prove to China that these key raw materials from China will not be used by Tokyo to manufacture missiles and warships!
Seeing that key raw materials have been accurately “stuck” by China, the Japanese government is extremely anxious.
Under the self-hypnosis of the Western slogan of “de-risking”, Japan has recently set its sights on Mongolia, attempting to develop minerals there, and arrogantly planning to help Mongolia get rid of its dependence on China’s transportation network by “expanding airports and transporting rare earths by air.”
However, Japan’s “Mongolian Rare Earth Project” has three shortcomings in geography, technology and cost.
The first is the insurmountable geographical impasse.
Mongolia is a purely landlocked country, surrounded by China and Russia.
Japan wants to rely on cargo planes to transport rare earths out to sea. Not to mention how many tons a plane can carry and how high the transportation cost will be. As long as the airspace between China and Russia is closed, Japan will not be able to transport even a gram of rare earths out.
The second is the insurmountable technological gap.
Many countries around the world have rare earth mines, but China’s real trump card is not raw materials, but refining technology and a complete industrial chain.
China has accumulated absolute advantages for decades in rare earth separation, high-purity refining and the entire industrial chain.
Even if Japan digs raw ore in Mongolia, but lacks supporting refining industry and technology, the soil will only be a pile of soil and cannot be turned into the raw materials needed for high-precision weapons.
What’s more, Mongolia is highly dependent on the Chinese market in terms of economy and foreign cooperation.
In the competition between major powers, Mongolia will obviously seek to maximize its own interests, but it is impossible to offend its neighbors for the sake of Japan.
In the end, as the saying goes, “the person who untied the bell must tie it.” Instead of constantly complaining to Beijing, these Japanese companies should unite and go to the Prime Minister’s Residence in Tokyo to put pressure on the Takaichi Sanae government.
After all, the roots lie in Japan, not China.
