In 2026, export control will be implemented. For the only domestic company with a full chain of indium, this is an important moment worthy of the attention of computing power investors.
Recently, many stock investors have been confused by the sudden and continued strength of the small metal sector. The market has been turbulent, but indium-related targets have gone up independently.
In fact, there is a profound logic behind it.
In February 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs officially issued an announcement on the control of indium-related items. Indium phosphide, organic indium and supporting production technologies were included in the export license list. Customs approval standards will continue to tighten throughout 2026, and the threshold for overseas procurement will be significantly raised.
At the same time, 2026 is the year of intensive implementation of AI computing power infrastructure. 800G and 1.6T optical modules will be launched in batches. Indium phosphide substrate is a raw material in demand for optical chips. The gap between supply and demand continues to expand, directly driving the demand for upstream metal indium to skyrocket.
Many people have misunderstandings about “export controls” and believe that they will suppress corporate revenue.
In fact, the scope of regulatory coverage directly targets the shortcomings of the overseas computing power industry chain.
According to the Ministry of Commerce’s Announcement No. 2 of 2025, the indium categories subject to control include indium phosphide single crystal, trimethylindium, triethylindium, and a complete set of preparation processes and production technologies.
In 2026, the customs enforcement level will further refine the review standards. Overseas corporate purchases will no longer be cleared through customs simply, the review and approval cycle will be lengthened, and some purchase applications will be rejected directly.
The essence of this policy is to balance supply chain security and force the entire chain to be autonomously controllable.
The implementation in 2026 will bring three major industry-oriented dividends.
First, priority is given to domestic supply of resources. Domestic primary indium production capacity is given priority to local companies. Overseas companies increase prices to rush for goods, pushing up the market price of indium metal and opening up profit margins for upstream smelting companies.
Second, full-chain enterprises have formed barriers, integrated enterprises have strong risk resistance capabilities, and the industry’s Matthew Effect has been strengthened.
Third, the 15th Five-Year Plan policy continues to increase, and many key scattered metals such as indium are listed as key categories to tackle, providing policy support for the expansion and technological upgrading of the domestic indium industry.
In the computing power industry, indium is the “computing power metal” in the AI era.
At present, AI large model training and intelligent computing center construction have greatly increased the demand for high-speed optical modules. With each iteration of optical modules, the demand for indium phosphide substrates directly doubles.
Industry organizations predict that the gap between global indium phosphide substrate demand and production capacity will exceed 70% in 2026, and Nvidia predicts that the overall demand for indium phosphide wafers will surge 20 times from 2026 to 2030.
Indium is a sparse metal with scarce reserves. China is the only country in the world with large-scale and stable supply capabilities.
The new demand for indium mainly comes from the field of computing power semiconductors, and a long-term tight balance between supply and demand has been established.
In 2026, the bidding documents for intelligent computing centers in various regions will add the requirement of “localization of core components and upstream materials” to open up incremental markets for domestic full-chain enterprises.
The only domestic enterprise producing indium in the entire chain has obvious advantages.
On the upstream resource side, the company holds domestic core indium ore reserves, is self-sufficient in raw materials, avoids cost fluctuations, and has a leading gross profit margin.
On the midstream material side, the 6-inch indium phosphide single crystal production line will be ramped up to full capacity in 2026, breaking the overseas monopoly, entering the supply chain of the leading domestic computing power company, and the order volume will increase significantly.
On the downstream supporting end, 100% of the products are supplied to domestic computing power and optical communications companies, which is in line with export control policies and has strong performance growth certainty.
The company has core differentiated advantages such as full-process integration, high policy matching, accurate demand matching, and broad space for domestic substitution.
For computing power investors, there are some practical ideas.
The first is to distinguish theme stocks from fundamental targets to avoid speculation traps.
The second is to seize the two core catalytic time windows. The normalized implementation of customs export controls throughout 2026 will benefit upstream integrated enterprises. In the second half of 2026, centralized bidding for intelligent computing centers and large-scale shipments of optical modules are expected to realize corporate performance.
The third is to adapt to the allocation logic of different types of investors. Long-term value investors focus on full-chain integrated enterprises, swing traders track price and order dynamics, and short-term retail investors cautiously pursue higher prices.
The fourth is to look at the potential fluctuations in the industry objectively. Although there are factors such as the metal cycle, overseas production expansion, and price fluctuations, the medium- and long-term expansion trend of AI computing power is determined, and the long-term upward logic of the industry remains unchanged.
