The biggest hidden catalyst in the capital market in recent days is not AI computing power or photovoltaic energy storage, but a piece of overseas industry news released during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, which directly stirred up the global rare metal industry chain. Many industry practitioners bluntly said: Indium is likely to have an independent market next week.
News on June 19 showed that my country’s customs is comprehensively strengthening the export review of metal indium, and overseas buyers have clearly felt the changes brought about by tightening supervision.
When European buyers declare indium export orders, they must fully disclose the name of the end-user company, location and final use of the product; leading North American buyers have reported that in the past, approval and release for indium exports could be completed on the same day as customs clearance, but now the review cycle has been lengthened to several days, and the complexity of the process has increased significantly.
As of now, the metal indium itself has not been officially included in the new export control list, and the customs has not seized goods or banned exports. Everything is still in the stage of strengthening review and increasing information verification. However, the Western high-tech and military industry chains have collectively fallen into anxiety, because this regulatory tightening process is almost the same as the previous steps for the control of gallium, germanium, and indium phosphide. Overseas manufacturers know that this is a precursor to the formal introduction of control policies.
Indium is a sparse rare metal with no independent mines. All metal indium circulating globally is a by-product of the smelting process of lead, zinc and tin ores. The supply side is almost inelastic. It will take at least 5-8 years to build new production capacity, and it is impossible to quickly expand production to fill the gap in the short term.
China has an absolute voice in the global indium industry. Domestic primary indium production capacity accounts for nearly 70% of the world’s total, and its proven reserves account for about 72%. More than 70% of its refining and purification production capacity is concentrated in China. It controls the core supply of the entire industry chain. The United States and Europe will not be able to get rid of the indium supply chain to China in the short term.
Indium has four major application scenarios: in the field of consumer display panels, nearly 80% of the world’s refined indium is used to produce ITO indium tin oxide targets. It is the raw material for transparent conductive films of screens such as smartphones and folding screens. There is currently no low-cost alternative; in the field of AI computing power and high-speed optical communications, the indium phosphide substrate in optical modules can only use high-purity metal indium as the basic raw material.
It is expected that the global supply and demand gap of high-end high-purity indium has exceeded 70%, and export restrictions will affect the construction of overseas computing power; in the new energy photovoltaic track, heterojunction HJT batteries and copper indium gallium selenide thin film batteries are highly dependent on indium, and the expansion of the photovoltaic industry will continue to bring new demand; in strategic fields such as military industry, aerospace, and infrared detection, the national defense systems of various countries have included indium as a strategic reserve mineral.
The state’s control over indium-related products is gradual.
On February 4, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs included indium phosphide and others in the export control list of dual-use items; on January 1, 2026, rare metals such as indium were included in the regular management of licenses; on June 15, 2026, indium was included in the list of 36 national strategic minerals; on June 19, 2026, the customs increased the review of upstream primary metal indium exports, forming a complete closed loop of control.
The fundamentals of the indium spot market are extremely scarce.
On the supply side, factors such as the absence of independent mines, production cuts by zinc smelting companies, and environmental protection and energy consumption controls have led to a decline in crude indium production. The global increase in primary indium is insufficient, social inventories have fallen to historical lows, and traders are reluctant to sell.
On the demand side, the demand for panels, AI optical communications, and HJT photovoltaics has increased simultaneously, and the gap between supply and demand continues to expand.
In terms of price, at the beginning of 2026, the domestic spot quotation of refined indium was only around 2,300 yuan/kg, which rose to 4,800 yuan/kg by the end of May. The quotation of 7N-grade ultra-high-purity indium exceeded 5,100 yuan/kg. With subsequent export controls, indium prices still have room to rise.
However, the indium sector also has volatility risks.
The implementation of the policy is uncertain, and if the current review intensity is maintained, market speculation will cool down; commodity prices are linked, and when the non-ferrous market weakens, it is difficult for the indium mainline to buck the trend and strengthen; there is a risk of cashing out funds after short-term emotional speculation; the construction of overseas alternative production capacity will weaken the logic of price increases in the long term, but the domestic supply-dominated pattern remains unchanged in the short term.
Taken together, the signal of this regulatory tightening is a new strong catalyst for the indium sector. Next Monday, the main line of the indium concept in the capital market has the basic conditions for an independent rise.
The country’s improvement of rare metal export control is a means to ensure its own strategic resource pricing power and the security of high-tech industries. The long-term value of the rare metal track will be revalued along with the global technology competition.
Ordinary market participants should pay attention to real industry data and distinguish between conceptual hype and core targets.
In the follow-up, we can track whether the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have issued a new export control announcement, as well as domestic refined indium spot quotations and overseas buyers’ rush for goods, to judge whether the sector market can continue.
