In early June 2026, the three major steel core consumer markets in East Asia and the Middle East successively implemented trade restrictions on cold steel plates from China.
Japan has launched an anti-dumping case for cold-rolled coils, South Korea has officially imposed temporary anti-dumping duties on galvanized cold-rolled steel, and Türkiye has announced long-term final high tariffs for all categories of cold-rolled + galvanized + color-coated steel.
The policies of the three places are connected and the categories covered are highly overlapping, forming a rare “three consecutive barriers” impact.
Based on export data from the General Administration of Customs, Japan, South Korea and Turkey have long been my country’s core export destinations for cold-rolled and coated sheets. The implementation of trade barriers will directly squeeze the export share of low-end cold-type sheets, forcing domestic steel companies to quickly adjust their export routes and product structures. The global cold-rolled galvanizing trade pattern will usher in a fundamental restructuring.
1. Trade barriers in the three places have been intensively implemented, and tariff thresholds in core export markets have been raised across the board
(1) Turkey: The first entrance to cold-type plates in the Middle East is blocked
Five-year high taxes on all categories
The Turkish Ministry of Trade issued a final announcement in mid-June, levying an anti-dumping tax of 22.37% – 32.40% on Chinese-made cold-rolled steel plates, galvanized steel plates, and color-coated plates. The validity period is up to five years. After the basic import tariff is added, the price competitiveness of domestic ordinary plates is basically lost.
From the detailed export data to the Middle East from January 2025 to April 2026, it can be seen that Türkiye is the absolute largest market for my country’s exports of cold-type plates in the Middle East.
1. Cold-rolled sheet: 245,400 tons of cold-rolled sheets were exported to Türkiye, far exceeding Egypt’s 83,100 tons and the United Arab Emirates’ 137,500 tons. It is the largest single demander of cold rolling in the Middle East.
2. Color-coated sheets: exported 552,700 tons to Türkiye, leading the distribution lines in the Middle East countries.
3. Galvanized sheets: Exports to Türkiye were 279,700 tons, ranking third in the Middle East.
Türkiye occupies a stable share in both cold-rolled and color-coated exports: cold-rolled sheet exports account for 6%, and color-coated plate exports account for 4.45%. They are an important overseas channel for my country’s coated plates.
A total of more than one million tons of the three types of cold-type plates are exported to Turkey. After the final cuts are implemented, the local downstream home appliances, construction, and photovoltaic industries will quickly turn to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates for supply substitution, and domestic enterprises’ traditional shipping channels in the Middle East will shrink significantly.
(2) South Korea: Temporary tariffs on galvanized steel will take effect on June 12, and exports of East Asian coated panels continue to be under pressure.
South Korea has imposed a four-month temporary anti-dumping tax on Chinese galvanized cold-rolled steel since June 12, with the highest tax rate reaching 33.67%. Photovoltaic and civil construction galvanizing are all included in the scope of restrictions.
1. Cold-rolled export volume weakens ahead of schedule
In 2025, domestic monthly cold-rolled export volume to South Korea will remain 1 –
It reached a high of 26,000 tons, with a peak of 26,300 tons in August 2025; however, the export volume continued to decline after entering 2026, with only 4,980 tons in January 2026, rising slightly to 13,400 tons in March, and falling again to 12,500 tons in April. The wait-and-see attitude towards overseas purchases has already fermented in advance.
2. Galvanized exports quickly cooled down after a short-term pulse
The export data of galvanized sheets more intuitively reflects market differences: In March 2026, domestic companies concentrated on rushing to ship goods, and galvanized exports to South Korea surged to nearly 190,000 tons, setting a stage peak; however, in April, the export scale quickly fell back to just over 100,000 tons, and the market rush ended.
Coupled with the expected implementation of South Korea’s galvanizing anti-dumping policy, downstream terminals have reduced purchases in advance, and the space for medium and long-term export growth has been significantly compressed.
Corresponding to the national galvanized sheet export pie chart, South Korea accounts for 7.68% of my country’s total galvanized exports and is the core market for coated sheets in East Asia.
According to industry estimates, if South Korea maintains high tax rates in its final ruling in October, exports of galvanized and cold-rolled goods to South Korea may fall by more than 10% year-on-year during the year, and domestic supply will flow back in large quantities, exacerbating off-season inventory pressure.
(3) Japan: Cold-rolled anti-dumping case opened, export sales of cold-rolled coils are expected to weaken
In response to a joint application by Nippon Steel, JFE, and Kobe Steel, Japan officially launched a one-year anti-dumping investigation into China’s ordinary cold-rolled coils, alleging a dumping margin of 30% – 50%.
1. Cold-rolled exports have shrunk significantly
Export data from the General Administration of Customs shows that my country’s cold-rolled exports to Japan have cooled down significantly since the second half of 2025: monthly exports from May to September 2025 generally exceeded 10,000 tons, with a peak of 13,000 tons in August; exports continued to decline at the beginning of 2026, with only 4,343.59 tons in April, less than one-third of last year’s peak.
Japan is the core high-end export market for domestic deep drawing and home appliance cold rolling. After the investigation, ordinary low-end cold rolling basically loses access space. Only high-strength automobile-specific cold rolling has exemption opportunities. The scale of cold rolling exports to Japan will further shrink in the medium and long term.
Second and triple barriers superimpose the real impact of the dismantling industry
1. The two core export sectors have shrunk simultaneously, and domestic inventory pressure has increased sharply in the off-season.
Japan and South Korea represent East Asia’s core plate export markets, and Türkiye is the largest importer of cold-type plates in the Middle East. The three places together account for nearly 20% of my country’s total cold-rolled and galvanized exports.
Comparison of country-by-country data in the Middle East: Turkey’s cold-rolled and color-coated exports rank first in the region, and galvanized exports rank third in the region. After the barrier is blocked, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates cannot fully take over the gap in the short term.
It is currently the off-season for traditional steel products. Demand for real estate and white goods is weak. The supply of goods blocked by export sales will return to the country. The pace of cold-rolled and galvanized social inventory destocking has slowed down significantly. Spot prices and steel mill processing fees continue to be under pressure.
The differentiation characteristics of products by category are obvious: ordinary construction galvanizing and low-end commercial cold-rolling are the most severely damaged. On the other hand, areas that mainly export high-end precision plates will have minimal impact from trade barriers, and the price difference between high and low value-added plates will continue to widen.
2. The profits of low-end homogeneous panels have been cleared, and small and medium-sized foreign traders have suffered serious loss of orders. The tax targets in Turkey and South Korea are low-margin building materials panels, which belong to the low-end volume category of the industry.
After high tariffs of more than 20% are added to sea freight and raw material costs, the FOB quotation of low-end panels completely loses its price advantage.
Leading steel mills can simultaneously deploy low-barrier Middle Eastern markets such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt to hedge risks. However, small and medium-sized traders and private production lines that only produce ordinary building materials and plates lack diversified channels, and a large number of orders have been transferred to Southeast Asian steel mills.
3. Trade protection creates a demonstration effect, and the global low-end plate free trade window closes. Japan, South Korea, and Turkey simultaneously introduced restrictive measures, setting a clear example for Southeast Asian and Latin American countries.
Previously, Brazil, Vietnam, and India have successively imposed taxes on China’s cold-rolled galvanizing. As can be seen from the global export pie chart of the three major categories, Southeast Asia and Latin American countries together account for more than 30% of my country’s plate exports. More importing countries may follow suit and initiate investigations.
Judging from the export data patterns over the years, low-priced and high-volume ordinary plates will always be the primary category targeted by anti-dumping measures in various countries. The old model of relying solely on cost advantages for export has come to an end, and the structural transformation of the industry is imminent.
3. Prediction of the market outlook
In the short term, South Korea’s temporary tariffs and Turkey’s five-year final sanctions have dually suppressed galvanized exports. The Japanese cold-rolling investigation is expected to drag down market sentiment, and the cold-rolled and galvanized spot prices remain weak and volatile.
In the medium term, if South Korea maintains high tax rates and Japan implements anti-dumping duties on cold rolling, the export scale of low-end cold steel plates will continue to shrink; the reshuffle of industry production capacity will accelerate, lagging ordinary galvanizing and cold rolling production lines will gradually be cleared, industry concentration will increase, and high-end plate profits will continue to recover.
In the long term, global steel trade protection will be normalized, and the cold-rolled and galvanized industries will completely bid farewell to low-price export dividends. “High-end, differentiated, and diversified market layout” will become the core logic of corporate survival. The price difference between internal and external prices and product stratification will become the long-term norm of the market.
IV. Conclusion
The simultaneous erection of trade barriers by Japan, South Korea, and Türkiye is not a short-term impact on a single market, but a landmark signal for the restructuring of global plate trade rules.
Combining the export data, it is not difficult to see that the past export model of relying on low-end plates and low prices to increase volume is unsustainable.
Domestic cold rolling and galvanizing industries must take the initiative to jump out of the low-price involution track, respond to the wave of global trade protection with product technology upgrades, deepen the penetration of low-barrier overseas markets, globalize and localize production capacity, and open up a new development track amid barriers.
