On the evening of June 19, the Ministry of Commerce released four authoritative new economic and trade regulations. Many policies are directly related to domestic agriculture and animal husbandry, foreign trade import and export, cross-border consumption, and business environment, and will indirectly affect the subsequent market expectations of A-share corresponding industries.
Most ordinary retail investors only focus on the rise and fall of the market and cannot understand the complete transmission chain of policy implementation. Let’s dismantle each official notice step by step to clarify the background, implementation time, market transmission path, long-term changes in the industry, and explain in layman’s terms the long-term impact on different sectors of A-shares.
The first step is to sort out the four official public messages in the evening one by one.
The first core policy is that starting from 0:00 on June 20, Australia’s excess imported beef will be subject to a 55% tariff.
According to the Ministry of Commerce’s Announcement No. 87 of 2025, country-specific beef import quota control will be implemented from 2026 to 2028. Australia’s annual beef import quota from China is fixed at 205,000 tons.
Customs statistics show that Australia has exhausted its annual quota on June 18. According to established regulations, the exhaustion of the quota will be postponed to the third day, that is, at 0:00 on June 20. Beef imported in excess of the quota will be subject to an additional 55% safeguard tariff on the basis of the original regular tariff.
Many ordinary readers mistakenly thought it was a temporary unilateral trade restriction. In fact, the entire set of rules was announced at the end of last year. The Ministry of Commerce issued early warnings at two points when the import quota was consumed: 50% and 80%. Traders had sufficient time to adjust overseas procurement channels, and it was not an unexpected temporary policy.
According to industry data from 2019 to 2024, the total domestic beef imports rose from 1.66 million tons to 2.87 million tons, an increase of 73.2%. The wholesale price of overseas imported beef is generally more than half lower than that of domestic beef. Low-priced imported supplies continue to squeeze the profit margins of local beef cattle farmers and slaughtering and processing companies. The enthusiasm of farmers for breeding has declined year by year. The purpose of introducing the quota system is to buffer the impact of low-price imports and stabilize the fundamentals of the domestic livestock industry.
According to the three-year plan, excess tariffs will be reduced to 45% in 2027 and 35% in 2028. The restrictions will be relaxed year by year to take into account the domestic breeding industry and diversified meat import needs.
The second news is that the new version of the Guidelines for Foreign Business Personnel Living and Working in China has been officially implemented, expanding the scope of visa exemption, optimizing the 240-hour transit visa exemption policy, and expanding the coverage of departure tax refunds in business districts.
Paperless declaration of tax refunds will be implemented across the country from July 1. Tax refunds for small purchases under 10,000 yuan will be simplified and the inspection process is simplified. Buy-and-refund services can be processed across ports in different places. Key tourist attractions and large business districts are fully covered with tax refund stores, attracting overseas tourists to enter the country for consumption, and driving revenue growth in the domestic catering, retail, and department store industries.
The simplified procedures for foreign businessmen to come to China will help foreign capital increase investment in domestic service industries and manufacturing industries in the long run, driving a steady increase in orders in the industrial chain.
The third official notice replicates and promotes the Shanghai Free Trade Zone’s 80 pilot systems for opening up to the outside world.
The customs clearance review process for goods has been simplified, and the customs clearance time for transit goods has been directly shortened by half. Cross-border compliance requirements for data in some industries have been relaxed. High-standard foreign trade rules have been implemented in batches across the country, which has reduced customs clearance and declaration costs for small and medium-sized foreign trade companies. This has benefited export companies in the fields of mechanical and electrical, home furnishings, and daily necessities. The operating expenses of foreign trade companies have been reduced, and corporate operating profits have been increased in the long term.
Article 4 Economic and Trade Trends: China and the EU have recently completed vice-ministerial talks on trade negotiations.
The EU has made it clear that it will not take the initiative to initiate a trade confrontation. The two sides have finalized follow-up ministerial consultation arrangements to stabilize China-EU bilateral trade expectations. The external demand environment for domestic exports of auto parts, new energy supporting equipment, and light industry to Europe has stabilized, reducing short-term uncertainty in the foreign trade industry and reducing market capital panic.
The second step is to clarify the complete sequence of policies from implementation to transmission to the A-share market.
The first layer of short-term direct changes: import traders adjust procurement sources, reduce Australian beef purchases, and increase beef imports from South American countries such as Argentina and Brazil; the purchase cost of Australian imported beef in supermarkets and catering channels has increased, terminal retail prices have gradually increased, and the market share of domestic beef has steadily increased.
The second-level mid-term six-month to one-year cycle: the domestic beef cattle breeding stock slowly increases, orders and revenue of feed companies and slaughtering and processing companies are steadily restored, and industry profitability returns to a reasonable range.
The number of inbound tourists has increased steadily, the revenue of offline supermarkets and food consumption sectors has improved, the customs clearance costs of foreign trade companies have dropped, and the gross profit margins of export companies have improved.
China-EU trade communication has become normalized, and negative expectations in the export sector have gradually been digested.
The third layer of long-term three-year cycle: the domestic livestock industry is accelerating in large-scale breeding, and the industry’s ability to resist external low-price shocks has become stronger; domestic opening up to the outside world continues to deepen, the foreign trade market layout is more diversified, and it does not rely solely on a single overseas country market, and the import and export industry’s ability to resist risks has improved.
The third step is to distinguish between A-share benefiting sectors and stable sectors, which industries are basically not affected by this policy, and only sort out the macro logic of the industry, not specific stocks.
First of all, the directly benefiting industries are divided into three categories.
The first category is beef cattle breeding, fresh meat product processing, and feed industry.
In the past few years, low-price imported beef has continued to depress the pricing of domestic beef. Farmers have limited income and are not willing to expand production.
After the tariffs were raised, the price advantage of imported beef disappeared, market demand shifted to domestic sources, domestic breeding companies expanded their market share, the overall profit environment of the industry improved, and upstream and downstream feed, slaughtering and processing companies simultaneously experienced an increase in demand.
The second category is the offline domestic consumption sector, chain supermarkets, snack foods, and local catering companies.
The travel and shopping procedures of inbound tourists have been simplified, the scale of inbound consumption by overseas personnel has increased, and the domestic demand for meat has been steadily released. The long-term demand in the rigid consumption industry has been stable, and market hedging funds will be optimistic about the domestic demand track in the long term.
The third category includes manufacturing exports to Europe, general machinery, household light industry, and auto parts.
China-EU trade continues to communicate, the risk of external trade frictions has decreased, and the customs clearance facilitation policy of the free trade zone has been replicated across the country. The operating costs of export companies have decreased, the stability of overseas orders has improved, and the industry’s prosperity has steadily improved.
Secondly, the sector remains stable overall.
In the new energy, infrastructure, and public utility industries, most corporate businesses are rooted in the domestic market. Changes in import and export tariffs and foreign trade negotiations have little impact on daily operations. The fundamentals of the industry will not fluctuate significantly with the economic and trade news this time.
Finally, the least affected sectors are resource industries such as semiconductors, military industry, and coal. Business supply and demand are mainly determined by domestic macro policies and upstream mineral supply. This new foreign trade regulation has almost no impact on the industrial chain, and the industry’s operating rhythm maintains the original trend.
The fourth step is to clarify the cognitive misunderstandings that ordinary investors are prone to and avoid one-sided interpretation.
Misunderstanding 1: One-sided understanding of trade friction as targeting a single country.
This quota control system is open to all beef exporting countries. Brazil and Argentina also implement the same quota control rules. Whoever uses up the annual import quota will be subject to a unified tariff on the excess. The rules are unified and fair. The purpose is to protect local agriculture and not to restrict trade with a single country.
Subsequent imports from other countries hit their quotas, which also triggered the tax increase mechanism.
Myth 2: Short-term sector rises equal long-term industry surges.
Tariffs only help local industries stabilize their market share and will not lead to huge industry profits in the short term.
Farmers are expanding production, beef cattle breeding cycles are long, production capacity is released at a slow pace, industry profits are slowly recovering, and the market is improving steadily in the long term, and there will be no short-term speculation.
Myth 3: As soon as the short-term negotiations between China and Europe are implemented, foreign trade orders immediately surge.
Bilateral high-level consultations are only a framework for stable long-term cooperation. Overseas customers place orders in cycles. Order increases will be released step by step and will not be concentrated in the short term. Industry improvement is a gradual process.
Comprehensive summary of the entire article: The four economic and trade policies in the evening are all implemented in a standardized system, and the complete rules are announced in advance. They have two core functions. One is to protect the domestic local agricultural industry through the quota system, ensure the stable income of farmers, and strengthen the security of domestic meat food supply; the other is to continue to expand institutional opening to the outside world, simplify the process of foreign investment in China, stabilize China-EU foreign trade cooperation relations, and broaden the overseas sales of domestic enterprises.
The overall idea is to stabilize people’s livelihood industries internally, expand bilateral economic and trade exchanges externally, guide domestic enterprises to make good market layouts for domestic demand and foreign trade, and promote the long-term stable development of the industrial chain.
Foreign trade policies will not have big ups and downs, industry changes will be gradual, and the profits of A-share related industries will also slowly recover. Everyone should take a long-term view of industry changes and not just focus on the short-term market fluctuations of one or two days.
What do you think is the long-term development space of the domestic beef cattle breeding industry?
Do you think domestic consumption will continue to strengthen in the future?
Welcome to leave your opinions in the comment area.
