A new policy is reshaping the profit model of the entire photovoltaic export industry.
The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly released a new export tax rebate policy adjustment plan, clarifying that starting from April 1, 2026, photovoltaic-related products will completely withdraw from the value-added tax export tax rebate system; at the same time, battery products will set a transition period and will officially return to zero in 2027.
This change means that the “price buffer” that photovoltaic foreign trade companies have long relied on is disappearing, and the industry’s competition logic will be completely rewritten.
This is not a simple tax rate adjustment, but a far-reaching structural change.
1. How to understand policy changes?
Three key nodes that foreign trade companies must master
From the time and product dimensions, this adjustment shows an obvious “layered design”: starting from April 1, 2026, the value-added tax export rebate for core products such as photovoltaic modules, silicon wafers, and cells will be directly cancelled; battery products
From April to December 2026: the rebate rate will be reduced from 9% to 6%; from January 2027: the rebate rate will be reduced to 0; categories not included in the scope of this adjustment include inverters, photovoltaic production equipment, brackets and other equipment and system products, which will still be implemented according to the original policy or will not be affected.
In other words, “selling core materials” and “selling systems and equipment” have been clearly distinguished at the policy level.
2. Why now?
Three signals behind the policy
From a macro perspective, this adjustment is not a temporary decision, but a concentrated release of long-term trends: First, the shift in fiscal logic. In the past few years, the scale of photovoltaic exports has expanded rapidly, and export tax rebates have objectively resulted in huge fiscal expenditures.
One of the core of policy adjustments is to shift resources from “generalized subsidies” to “targeted support for industrial upgrading.”
Second, realistic considerations of the international trade environment. As global new energy trade frictions intensify, continued high proportions of tax refunds can easily be regarded as “hidden subsidies”, increasing the risk of countervailing investigations and trade barriers.
Third, active screening of the industry structure weakens the low-price advantage, forcing companies to improve technology thresholds, product added value and global operation capabilities, accelerating the elimination of backward production capacity that relies on scale and cost competition.
This means: The era of relying on tax rebates to eat profits has come to an end.
3. Different types of enterprises will be impacted differently
1. The cancellation of tax rebates for photovoltaic export-oriented enterprises throughout the chain will directly compress profit margins.
Leading companies have certain buffering capabilities by virtue of their brand premium, overseas factory layout and technological advantages; while companies that mainly focus on OEM and low-price manufacturing will see significantly greater pressure to survive if they are unable to quickly complete product upgrades.
2. Battery and energy storage-related corporate policies provide a “transition window” of about 9 months, but the window period itself is a countdown.
If companies cannot complete cost structure optimization, product upgrades and customer lock-in during this period, they will face more severe profit challenges after 2027.
3. The model of foreign trade service and channel enterprises relying solely on deal matching and price advantage will be weakened. Customers will pay more attention to comprehensive solutions, delivery stability and long-term cooperation capabilities.
4. What should companies do?
From “emergency response” to “system reconstruction”
(1) Short-term: Stabilize cash flow, seize the time window (the next six months) and re-examine the export rhythm. For products that can still enjoy tax rebates, prioritize customs declaration and shipment, and lock in production capacity and logistics resources in advance.
Strengthen cash flow management, shorten the inventory turnover cycle, and reserve funds for freight, insurance and exchange rate fluctuation buffers.
Adjust the customer contract structure and introduce terms such as price adjustment and phased delivery into new or renewed contracts to share the cost pressure caused by policy changes.
(2) Mid-term: “two-way adjustment” of products and markets (6-18 months) The product structure upgrade increases the proportion of system-level, equipment-level, and high-efficiency products, and gradually gets rid of dependence on a single component or material.
Rebalance the market layout to reduce dependence on a single highly sensitive market and expand into regions with rapid growth in demand for new energy such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
Evaluate overseas production or cooperation models through OEM, joint ventures or light assets to test the feasibility of overseas manufacturing and reduce policy and trade risks.
(3) Long-term: From “selling products” to “selling capabilities” (more than 18 months), continuous technology investment regards R&D as long-term competitiveness rather than cost items, and forms differentiation around efficiency, reliability and system integration.
Develop service and solution revenue and deploy energy storage, operation and maintenance, digital management and other value-added services to enhance customer life cycle value.
Strengthen compliance and industry collaboration to proactively respond to international certification, compliance and countervailing risks, and enhance overall brand credibility.
5. Execution level: Put strategies into projects
It is recommended that enterprises promote adjustments in a “project system” instead of responding piecemeal.
The following five workflows can be started simultaneously: Taxation and HS coding review Key customer impact assessment orders and production rearrangement Product and market structure adjustment Overseas layout feasibility calculation Complete the basic assessment within the first month, and then promote implementation in stages.
Conclusion: The real watershed is not the cancellation of tax rebates in the policy itself, which will not end photovoltaic exports; but it will end a growth model that relies on policy dividends and ignores long-term capacity building.
Companies that can continue to go global in the future will no longer compete for who is cheaper, but who is more stable, more professional, and more worthy of long-term cooperation.
For photovoltaic and battery foreign trade companies, now is not a moment to wait and see, but a key node to redesign their business models.
The earlier you act, the lower the adjustment costs; the later you react, the higher the risk of obsolescence.
