The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products brings change and challenges to the industry.

On January 8th, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued the “Announcement on Adjusting the Export Tax Rebate Policy for Photovoltaic and Other Products,” which stipulates that the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled from April 1, 2026. This policy caused an immediate stir in the photovoltaic industry, with many companies urgently recalling employees to rush production and suspending their original plans to take early holidays for the Spring Festival, all in an effort to ship goods before the policy takes effect. The countdown to the cancellation of the export tax rebate policy triggered a sudden surge in exports in the photovoltaic industry. This cancellation of the export tax rebate involves various products, including silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules, including doped monocrystalline silicon wafers of varying thicknesses with a diameter of 15.24 cm or more used in the electronics industry, as well as photovoltaic cells, whether installed or not in modules. The only tax affected is export value-added tax (VAT); the export consumption tax policy remains unchanged, and solar cells are exempt from consumption tax. The tax rate will be reduced from 9% to zero. my country’s photovoltaic VAT rate has undergone several evolutions, and this time it’s a reduction of the export tax rebate rate from 9% to 0%. The implementation date is April 1, 2026, leaving a transition period of less than three months. This policy shift signifies that the photovoltaic industry as a whole is moving towards value competition where companies are responsible for their own profits and losses. For the entire industry, this is a short-term negative, but a necessary “brake” in the long term. The profits of some low-margin companies will be wiped out instantly. The industry can no longer rely on “tax rebates for orders.” The cancellation of tax rebates will accelerate the photovoltaic industry reshuffling and strongly support “anti-involution.” Export-oriented companies, especially those with high export volumes and values, will be most affected. In 2024, my country’s photovoltaic module exports accounted for 67% and 87% of the entire industry chain (excluding polysilicon), respectively, making it the most impacted link. All of the world’s top ten photovoltaic module manufacturers are Chinese companies. Jinko Solar has the highest proportion of overseas business, followed by Trina Solar and JA Solar, while LONGi Green Energy has the lowest. In the short term, the cancellation of export tax rebates has increased export costs for companies, reduced price competitiveness, and put pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association shows that in the first three quarters of 2025, the operating revenue of 31 companies in the main photovoltaic industry chain decreased by 16.9% year-on-year, with a net loss of 31.039 billion yuan and a gross profit margin of only 3.64%. The cancellation of export tax rebates will further squeeze the profit margins of companies and accelerate industry consolidation. In the long term, it will accelerate industry clearing, reduce the risk of international trade friction, and promote high-quality development. With the exit of SMEs, low-end and repetitive production capacity will be cleared up more quickly, further increasing the concentration of the photovoltaic industry and guiding companies from “price wars” to “value wars.” The cancellation of export tax rebates is based on customs declarations completed before April 1st. This incentivizes companies to deliver orders ahead of schedule and pre-declare customs, potentially leading to a short-term “rush to export” effect and a surge in first-quarter photovoltaic exports. However, this could deplete demand in the second and third quarters. In the long term, it will accelerate the restructuring of the global supply chain, prompting companies to accelerate their overseas expansion, shifting from “Made in China, supplied globally” to “Made globally, supplied locally,” making globalization a core competitive advantage.