At the beginning of 2026, the stainless steel seamless pipe foreign trade market will usher in disruptive adjustments.
Pengye Holdings’ analysis of the foreign trade situation released based on industry data and global market trends shows that the foreign trade pattern throughout the year will present three major characteristics: “strong policy constraints, market polarization, and high-tech competition.” It is inevitable that low-end homogeneous products will be eliminated. High-end equipment supporting and the “Belt and Road” high-quality market will become the key to breaking the situation. The industry is undergoing an in-depth transformation from “scaling overseas” to “quality overseas”.
Policy reshuffle has reshaped the industry’s export ecology, and compliance has become the basic threshold for going overseas.
Starting from January 1, 2026, my country’s stainless steel products with full tax code will implement new regulations on “going overseas with a license”, completely ending the chaos of “paying for exports”.
The person in charge of the foreign trade division of Pengye Holdings said that this is not just a simple policy adjustment, but a major reshuffle involving the 5 million-ton export market.
Data show that my country’s steel export volume hit a record high in 2025, but the average price fell by 10% year-on-year. The low-price and volume model has triggered more than 50 trade frictions. The EU has made it clear that it will impose a unified tariff of 25% in 2026.
In this context, the new regulations will directly push up the compliance costs of low-end products and accelerate the clearance of small and medium-sized production capacity. Companies that have completed ultra-low emission transformation in advance and have complete international certification qualifications will seize the first-mover advantage.
Pengye Holdings has completed the layout of seven major international certifications, including EU PED and US ASME. Its green and low-carbon production system has also passed authoritative audits and has become one of the direct beneficiaries after the policy adjustment.
From the global demand side, market demand is significantly differentiated, and the high-end energy field has become the core engine of growth.
Regional differentiation is becoming increasingly clear. The North American market will benefit from the US$1.2 trillion infrastructure investment bill. The development of shale gas and the upgrading of the refining and chemical industry will drive the demand for approximately 280,000 tons of stainless steel seamless pipes, worth more than US$1.8 billion. The European market focuses on green energy transformation and pipeline renewal.
The demand for pipes with high corrosion resistance and low carbon emissions is stable; countries along the “Belt and Road” have become the main force in the increase. The ASEAN and Middle East markets have grown by more than 13% in 2024. Projects such as Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030” and Indonesia’s new capital construction have strong demand for medium and large diameter, high pressure seamless pipes.
Pengye Holdings estimates that global stainless steel seamless pipe demand will grow by about 3% in 2026, but structural opportunities are concentrated in high-end fields such as energy and power, LNG storage and transportation, and hydrogen energy.
In contrast, in the low-end civilian field, export volume may decline by 5% – 8% due to homogeneous competition and cost pressure.
Currently, the global high-end market is still dominated by companies such as Sumitomo of Japan and VDM of Germany. The import dependence of seamless pipes in the domestic high-end chemical industry is still 35%, and the import dependence of nuclear-grade and aviation-grade products is even higher.
The core of foreign trade competition in 2026 has shifted from price war to the competition of comprehensive strength of “technology + resources”.
On the one hand, although the localization rate of high-end varieties such as duplex stainless steel 2205 and TP321H has increased to 67.5%, it still needs to break through key technologies such as precision rolling and service performance database construction; on the other hand, the 34% reduction in Indonesian nickel ore quotas will trigger drastic fluctuations in nickel prices, making strategic reserves of raw materials and the ability to utilize recycled stainless steel become the key to cost control.
In response to these challenges, Pengye Holdings has launched two strategic layouts: First, it will increase investment in research and development, focusing on high-end products such as low-temperature LNG pipes and hydrogen energy storage and transportation special pipes, with the goal of increasing the import substitution rate to 75%; second, it will build a global supply chain system and set up warehousing centers in Southeast Asia to meet the needs of local infrastructure projects, while locking in Indonesia’s recycled nickel resource channels to alleviate the impact of raw material fluctuations.
The chairman of Pengye Holdings emphasized that 2026 is not a “bonus year” for stainless steel seamless pipe foreign trade, but a “knockout year.”
Policy reshuffle, demand differentiation, and technological upgrading will accelerate the optimization of the industry structure, and the CR10 concentration ratio is expected to increase to 62.3%.
Only by abandoning the “scale complex” and focusing on high-end, differentiation, and globalization can enterprises gain a firm foothold in the reconstruction of the global value chain.
Based on policy compliance and technological innovation as the core, Pengye Holdings will deeply explore high-quality overseas markets and promote China’s stainless steel seamless pipe foreign trade to leapfrog from “manufacturing export” to “standard export”.
